This is due to, among others, the fact that there is a time lag between the concentration of emissions in the atmosphere and the impact thereof on the temperature. Nevertheless, this does not mean that the earth would necessarily be 1.5⁰C warmer at the very point in time when the remaining carbon budget for staying below the 1.5⁰C threshold was used up. The concept of the carbon budget is based on a almost linear relationship between the cumulative emissions and the temperature rise. MCC's Carbon Clock only reflects the remaining budget for CO 2 the contribution of other greenhouse gases to global heating is subtracted before calculating this remaining carbon budget (for more details see here, top of third page). In both cases, the clock shows the remaining carbon budget – and the remaining time. Navigating the MCC website allows for an interactive understanding of the time frame of action required for a given political goal: with just one click, the upper left-hand corner leads you to the scenario for the 2☌ target, and the upper right-hand corner to the 1.5☌ target. Thus, the clock is ticking, showing how little time is left for political decision-makers to take action. The budgets are calculated in such a way that it is highly likely that the respective temperature target will be met, that is in two thirds of the climate scenarios examined. The budget for staying below the 2☌ threshold, for its part, of 1,150 Gt, would be exhausted in about 25 years. With emissions at a constant level, the budget would be expected to be used up in less than eight years from now.

Annual emissions of CO 2 – from burning fossil fuels, industrial processes and land-use change – are estimated to be 42.2 Gt per year, the equivalent of 1,337 tonnes per second. The IPCC last updated its estimate of the remaining carbon budget in summer 2021, with the presentation of the first part of its Sixth Assessment Report.Īccording to report ( see here, table SPM.2), on the 1.5 degree Celsius target, the atmosphere can absorb, calculated from the beginning of 2020, no more than 400 gigatonnes (Gt) of CO 2 if we are to stay below the 1.5☌ threshold.

As to the scientific basis of the Carbon Clock, we exclusively draw on data from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), which represents the verified state of research.

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